GGR208 Lecture 04

GGR208 Lecture 3a 2026 1.pdf

• Demographic Transition Model
  • Moves from a pre to postindustrial society.
  • Alteration in CBR, CDR and RNI.
  • Factors are:
    • Revolution in agriculture
    • Improvements in sanitation
    • Industry
    • Transportation
    • Science
  • Phases / Stages
    • High stationary
      • High CBR and CDR
      • Low Population Growth
    • Early expanding
      • High CBR and declining CDR
        • When the CDR is declining, that's indicating better:
          • Food supply
          • Sanitation
          • Medicine
        • May imply revolutions.
      • High Population Growth
    • Late expanding
      • Declining CBR and low CDR (plateau)
      • Moderate Population Growth
    • Low stationary
      • Low CBR and CDR
      • Late industrialization.
      • More service section growth.
      • Low Population Growth
    • Declining?
      • Natural Increase approaches 0
      • Fertility has declined
      • We're not meeting the replacement target of 2.1 - 2.2
      • More elderly, higher death rate.
      • Fewer young people, lower birth rate.
      • Population decline.
      • It's difficult to change the population structure at this stage.
      • Population Pyramids may become more top heavy.
        • Modeling something like japan or germany.
    • Does this whole curve $\sim N(\mu ,{\sigma }^2)$?
  • We've seen the 5 stages.
  • We measure:
    • CBR
    • CDR
    • RNI
    • TFR
    • All over time
  • Applications of DTM
    • Predicting population growth
    • Planning for resources
    • Understanding social and economic changes
    • Is transition possible.
    • How long?
    • Technology transfer:
      • Access
        • Countries stuck in the 2nd and 3rd stages may not have access to the technologies that allowed other countries to transition.
      • Markets
      • Fair trade
    • Incomplete Transition
      • Poverty, absence of social / cultural changes.
    • Completed transition
      • Environment issues
      • Population decline
        GGR208 Lecture 3b 2026.pdf
• Different density measurements
  • What's measured
  • What's the implications.
• Population Density
  • Relationship between population and area.
  • Crude Density
    • $\text{Population Density}=\frac{\text{\# of persons}}{{\text{km}}^2\text{ of total land}}$
  • Physiological Density
    • $\text{Physiological Density}=\frac{\text{\# of persons}}{{\text{km}}^2\text{ of arable land}}$
    • Not everyone lives on arable land.
    • Not captured in this measurement.
  • Agricultural Density
    • $\text{Agricultural Density}=\frac{\text{\# of farmers}}{{\text{km}}^2\text{ of arable land}}$
  • Example:
    • Canada has a lot of land, but very low population, because much of the land is not arable.
    • Difference between physiological and agricultural density can indicate level of development.
    • High physiological density with low agricultural density may indicate advanced agricultural technology.
    • The difference between physiological and agricultural density can also show the pressure on arable land.
  • Problems with density measurements
    • Crude density doesn't account for uninhabitable areas.
    • Physiological density may not reflect actual living conditions.
    • Agricultural density may not account for modern farming techniques.
    • How do you define arable land?
      • Is it standardized?
    • Why isolate agriculturalists?
    • Does this take into account productive land?
      • Some land may be arable but not productive.
    • Look at a map and see where the highest densities are.
      • Cities
      • River valleys
      • Coasts
      • Fertile areas
      • This shows the relationship between population pressure and resources.
      • Europe has a lot more population pressure than Canada.
  • Population Distribution
    • How people are spread out over an area.
    • Influenced by physical and human factors.
    • Uneven distribution.
      • Physical factors:
        • Climate
        • Topography
        • Soil fertility
        • Water availability
      • Human factors:
        • Economic opportunities
        • Infrastructure
        • Cultural factors
      • Patterns of distribution:
        • Clustered
        • Dispersed
        • Linear
  • Density at the local level
    • Urban vs rural
      • Suburban $⟹<\frac{20}{{\mathrm{km}}^2}$
      • Urban $⟹>\frac{50}{{\mathrm{km}}^2}$
      • Intensive urban $⟹>\frac{1000}{{\mathrm{km}}^2}$
    • Sustainability
      • High density can lead to strain on resources.
      • Low density can lead to inefficiencies in service delivery.
      • The density of an area can affect something like public transportation viability.
• Carrying Capacity
  • Ability of an area to sustain its population.
    • How is it defined?
    • Is it fixed?
      • Does it change with technology / information?
      • Suppose a class:
        • 120 seats
      • Suppose a small garden:
        • You can increase the carrying capacity by adding fertilizer, water, irrigation.
  • Connection to density?
    • Precise measurement, but carrying capacity is more abstract.
  • Overcrowding
    • When population exceeds carrying capacity.
    • Leads to resource depletion, environmental degradation, social issues.
    • If you ask 100 randomly sampled people about carrying capacity, you'll get different answers.
      • Most would say africa has low carrying capacity and is overcrowded.
      • They wouldn't think or western europe is overcrowded.
  • Space relationship
    • Local / global
    • If we were to be based on our own local resources, in canada we would've had to save up food from the summer to last through the winter.
    • But most our resources are not local.
      • Globalization allows us to exceed local carrying capacity.
      • We take carrying capacity from other places.
      • Is it rivalrous?
        • If we take the carrying capacity from another place, does that reduce their carrying capacity equally?
    • Does wealth affect carrying capacity?
      • Wealthier countries can afford to import resources.
      • They can also invest in technology to increase carrying capacity.
  • How does this connect to population pressure?
    • High population pressure can lead to exceeding carrying capacity.
    • This can lead to migration, conflict, environmental degradation.
      https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p07nkw1m/the-new-roots-of-the-flower-trade
• Exported from a lot of equator line countries.
  • Columbia, Ecuador, Kenya, Ethiopia.
• Sacrificing some carrying capacity for economic gain.
  • A farm of flowers uses a lot of land that could be used for food production.
  • Flower farms use a lot of water.
  • Negative impact as well on the transportation to ship flowers globally.
  • Electricity use for refrigeration.
  • All arbitrage. Very little of the economic gain is going to Kenya. But enough to make it worth it for them.
• Tulip mania
  • 1630s in holland.
  • Tulips were a status symbol.
  • Prices rose to absurd levels.
  • People sold their homes to buy tulip bulbs.
  • Eventually the market crashed.
  • An early example of a speculative bubble.
  • Atrioc video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsqjGtcnyfE&pp=ygUMYXRyaW9jIHR1bGlw

GGR208 Lecture 4a 2026-1.pdf