GGR208 Lecture 06

• Test Review
  • RNI increases, because CBR is relatively the same and CDR is decreasing.
    • Could be economic development, but then why isn't the birth rate going down?
    • Could be because of better healthcare, which is decreasing the death rate.
    • Could be food supply, humanitarian aid, etc.
    • But is any of this related to economic development?
    • Depends on what's actually affecting CDR.
  • Dependency Ratio question.
    • Gotten better in general, some have gotten worse.
    • You have some countries with extreme aging issues:
      • Sweden, Portugal, Singapore, china.
• Assignment 2
  • Variables:
    • Population under 15 over 65
    • IMR TFR
    • Health and education expenditure
    • Delivery ratios like docter / patient, teacher / student, etc.
  • Time series
• Data
  • $25,12$
  • Under 15 over 65
  • Dependency Ratio
  • $\frac{100-25-12}{25+12}=\frac{63}{37}=1.7027027027027$
  • Same ratio throughout the years, but it's not good. We want $2$ as the ratio. But we also see the $<15$ population gets lower as the $>65$ population gets higher.
  • You also see that TFR is getting lower, potentially having corelation with economic development. Or other cultural changes.
  • We have $1.6$ as TFR which is below replacement level, which is $2.1$.
    • Might be possible to get the TFR up but very hard.
  • IMR is getting lower, which is good. This is probably due to better healthcare, which is a sign of economic development.
  • $\frac{26039}{24206}=1.07572502685285$
  • $\frac{33295}{26039}=1.27865893467491$ chain
  • $\frac{33295}{24206}=1.3754854168388$ total
  • $\frac{38358}{33295}=1.1520648746058$ chain
  • $\frac{38358}{24206}=1.58464843427249$ total
  • $58\mathrm{\%}$ is a pretty big change.
  • Energy
    • $3501$
    • $3923$
    • $4141$
    • $4351$
    • $\frac{3923}{3501}=1.12053698943159$
    • $\frac{4141}{3501}=1.18280491288203$
    • $\frac{4351}{3501}=1.24278777492145$
  • Emission
    • $8$
    • $10$
    • $12$
    • $14$
    • $\frac{10}{8}=1.25$
    • $\frac{12}{8}=1.5$
    • $\frac{14}{8}=1.75$
  • Expenditure
    • $4.9$
    • $5.2$
    • $6.9$
    • $7.2$
    • $\frac{5.2}{4.9}=1.06122448979592$
    • $\frac{6.9}{4.9}=1.40816326530612$
    • $\frac{7.2}{4.9}=1.46938775510204$
  • Education
    • $5.9$
    • $5.6$
    • $5.4$
    • $5.2$
    • $\frac{5.6}{5.9}=0.949152542372881-1=-0.050847457627119$
    • $\frac{5.4}{5.9}=0.915254237288136-1=-0.084745762711864$
    • $\frac{5.2}{5.9}=0.88135593220339-1=-0.11864406779661$
  • We do it because we can then see the trends. So we can also normalize it rather than doing absolute values and comparison.
    • Energy spend and emissions spend are increasing. So we likely have manufacturing in this economy.
    • Not clean energy we spend.
      • Something about efficiency of the emission.
      • Unsustainable development.
  • Tertiary sector is expanding. So lots of services, which kind of counteracts my initial thoughts that increase in energy and emissions implied it was a secondary sector.
  • Maybe we're not being innovative enough. We're growing but not innovating enough to be more efficient. So we have more energy and emissions spend, but we're not getting the most output out of it.
  • We can see that we had $24\mathrm{\%}$ output for $55\mathrm{\%}$ for tertiary. At the end we have $42\mathrm{\%}$ output for $66\mathrm{\%}$ employed. So clearly we're not being efficient enough. We should be getting more output out of the tertiary sector, but we're not. All it seems to be is just slow efficiency gains, nothing too crazy.
  • We have increase in health spend by a lot. However, doctor patient ratio is actually lower. So clearly the efficiency in this is very high, or we are not delivering the improvements properly. Are we also investing in: community health, preventative screening, etc. Other methods for efficient and effective delivery.
  • Education spend is going down, but teacher student ratio is also going down. So maybe we're getting more efficient in education, or maybe we're just not investing enough in education. We should be investing more in education, but we also need to make sure that the delivery of education is efficient and effective.
    • Also maybe because youth are decreasing and the elderly are increasing. So we reprioritize education spend to health spend, which is not necessarily a bad thing. But we also need to make sure that we're investing enough in education to ensure that we have a skilled workforce in the future.
    • Students per teacher is going down. Which is probably a good thing, but we also need to make sure that we're not just investing in more teachers, but also investing in the quality of education and the delivery of education.
  • Since GNI is going up and education $\mathrm{\%}$ of gni is going down. It might just be constant if the rates are the same.
  • However GNI is going up and health $\mathrm{\%}$ is going up a lot, meaning we have a lot more health spend. So we might be investing more in health, which is good, but we also need to make sure that we're investing in the right areas of health and that we're delivering the improvements effectively.
    • We have $58\mathrm{\%}$ increase in GNI and $46\mathrm{\%}$ increase in health, so we essentially doubled health spend.
  • For assignment 2, we need to consider all of this data in entirety, and see if it's a sustainable society.

term testresponses208 2026.pdf
GGR208 Assignment 2 2026.pdf
GGR208 Lecture 4c 2026-1.pdf

• Lecture 4c
• Female bear the burden of:
  • reproduction
  • caregiving
• yet lack of power on:
  • fertility decisions
  • options beyond motherhood
• This changes power dynamics and fertility dynamics, which can have implications for population growth and economic development.
• Female Empowerment
  • Years in education:
    • delays marriage and childbearing
    • reduction in family size
  • Correlation between illiteracy and births
    • Low literacy rates are associated with higher fertility rates
  • Education provides choice which leads to empowerment, which leads to lower fertility rates.
  • Empowerment through education
    • Improvement in school enrolment
      • Making it important
      • Govt and NGO funding
    • However we have $<50\mathrm{\%}$ enrolment in some places.
    • It's higher in countries where economic development has occurred.
    • Overall enrolment is still low, however female enrolment is higher than males in some cases. But basically parity now.
    • What's first? Socio-Cultural change or economic development?
      • Education policy just tries to foster socio-cultural change.
      • Without economic change it might be hard to foster socio-cultural change, but without socio-cultural change it might be hard to foster economic change. So it's a bit of a chicken and egg problem.
    • Costs
      • We need to invest in these changes
    • Speed of change
      • How long is education delaying birth of first child?
      • Has to be part of a bigger plan. If you leave school and there's no employment or development. There wasn't really a purpose of the education on quality of the family, for the child, etc.
    • Is education a prerequisite for empowerment?
      • Not necessarily, but it can be a very effective tool for empowerment.
      • We can also have empowerment through other means, such as economic empowerment, political empowerment, etc.
    • For males, the education wasn't as prioritized. Because perhaps this education wasn't necessary for their role in society.